This edition consists of a review of talks during the first quarter of 2012 and a reveiew of the annual luncheon last autumn.

Paul is currently Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society (the Learned and Professional Society for weather and climate). He is also a visiting professor at the University of Reading and has provided external support to several UK Universities on weather and climate. Paul is also a member of the Science Steering Group for the UK's Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme. Paul is a member of the Board of the Science Council and the Chairman of Sense about Science, a charity that helps to equip people to make sense of science at the heart of topical public issues. He is a member of the Standards Quality Council for the qualifications awarding body PAA\VQSET, a reviewer for the Queen’s Anniversary Prizes, and a member of the Steering Group for the e-Research South consortium. Paul is also a regular contributor to the media on weather and climate. In his photo he is showing one of the many websites you can find him on.

This review of Paul Hardaker's talk fell to me unexpectedly and as my short term memory is not what it once was, I have taken the advantage of his presence on the web to pick up some of the items in his talk directly from the internet. I do however clearly remember the the global weather model he demonstrated with which gave climate details over a period of time. I have not located the particular ones used but found a similar on the illustrates forcasts of windspeeds for 180 hours at the height above ground where jetstreams occur. The importance of jetsteams in formulating the weather over the British Isles is paramount. I also found three questions together with Paul Hardaker's answers from "Geography In The News" website at www.geographyinthenews.rgs.org which were relevant to his talk and concern the summer weather here influenced by global weather patterns.

Weather Model - Global Jet Stream Wind www.stormsurfing.com

1. What are the key meteorological processes that impact on our summer weather?
We are very lucky in the UK that we have varied and seasonal weather because of where we are located – an island in the mid-latitudes off a large continent with the Atlantic Ocean to the West. Much of our prevailing weather comes from the south-west in the form of mid-latitude depressions. In the summer months this generally changes and we have warm air that travels from the south.
What we often hope for in summer is an high pressure system that will sit over the UK and keep the warm, dry weather conditions with us for several days (and sometimes even weeks) at a time. We call this a 'blocking' high pressure, because it pushes away the incoming low pressure systems. It can have the down side thought that it also traps in pollutants and can cause poor air quality.
Over the last three summers the jet stream has been much further south than we would expect for the time of year. The jet stream is a fast flowing, narrow current of air that ribbons around the globe at high levels in the atmosphere (around 10km or so). The jet can help weather systems travel across the Atlantic and when the jet is far enough south it directs the prevailing weather towards the UK. This brings with it the unseasonably wet and windy weather conditions we have seen in recent summers and makes it more difficult for the high pressure systems to settle over the UK.

2. The Met Office produced a forecast that predicted a ‘BBQ summer’ that the Society reported on; how complex is it to make future forecasts like this?
It is quite complex to make seasonal forecasts. We do this very differently to the way in which the usual 5-day forecasts are made. When we want to go beyond 5 days we have to build different forecast models that join together what’s happening in the atmosphere with what’s happening in the oceans, as the oceans transport a lot of the energy that drives our weather on longer timescales.
We also make use of our knowledge of how weather across the world is related. For example if you look at the relationship between both the sea-surface temperature (SST) and pressure around Iceland and at the Azores in May, then this has been shown to be a good indicator of the likely winter weather conditions. This is called the North Atlantic Oscillation (or the NAO). You have probably heard of another of these oscillations, the more famous ‘El Nino’. El Nino is a large-scale warming of SST in the tropical Pacific which is so large that it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe.
So in making a seasonal forecast, meteorologists bring together the atmosphere-ocean model predictions and the statistical relationships into one combined forecast. Because of the nature of how the information is combined, the forecast is probabilistic and broader in detail. Therefore rather than saying it will rain, for example, on Saturday 15 August in Manchester at 4pm, the equivalent seasonal prediction would say it would be more likely to be warmer and wetter than the average for the north of England in August. This type of forecast is more useful for long term planning.
Just a quick word about the ‘BBQ summer’ forecast. The Met Office’s forecast said that it would be more likely that we would have warmer than average temperatures and average or less than average rainfall for the period June, July, August. We have had warm temperatures, but it has been much wetter than expected. In fact in July we had twice the normal rainfall – certainly not good BBQ weather!

3. What weather conditions does Britain have in a typical summer?
We define summer in meteorological terms as June, July and August and ‘typical’ is what we would expect from the average as calculated over a 30-year period. This is an internationally defined standard and the timescale is chosen so as not to be too influenced by the variations in our year-to-year weather. Below are some ‘typical’ summer weather conditions, based on the 1971-2000 30-year averages:

As a northern hemisphere country our summer is the warmer and dryer part of our year, in general. Although being in the mid-latitudes, each of our summer months have rain on about one-third of the days.
You can see from the table that July is typically the warmest and driest of the summer months. Interestingly though, the month that is the driest and has the most sunshine hours in the whole year is May, so you can see that it’s no co-incidence that we have two May bank holidays.
You can find more useful information on the monthly and yearly climatology across the UK on the Met Office: UK climate and weather statistics web pages.

Paul also drew attention to the fact that there are now many sources of weather forecasts. the met office is not the only one providing forecasts for the British Isles. The weather satellites provide data that is available to various organistions. Cloud formations and the local observations were covered in his talk.

A very lively question and answer session followed the talk. The talk was much apreciated by the audience and Andrew Smith expressed our thanks to Paul Hardaker.

Dr Peter Ford was a member of the Physics Department of the University of Bath until his retirement in 2007. For many years he carried out research into the behaviour of materials at very low temperatures including their superconducting properties. In 2004, together with George Saunders, he published a book "The Rise of the Superconductors", which attempts to explain the subject to senior sixth form students and beyond.

More recently he has become prominent in the "Public Awareness of Science" and has given his "Liquid Nitrogen Show" at many schools and other venues. In 2004 he was made a Fellow of the Institute of Physics and is currently chair of the History of Physics Group of the Institute of Physics. In the Queen\'s New Year Honours List for 2008 he was made a Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) for "services to higher education and to science".
Albert Einstein, born March 14th 1879 in Ulm,Southern Germany.

The World in 1897

In 1897 Queen Victoria was on the throne. Bismarck wass the “The Iron Chancellor” of Prussia. Leon Trotsky, Russian Revolutionary, and Josef Stalin, Soviet leader, were both born in 1879. Russia and Britain signed the Treaty of Gandamak which established the state of Afghanistan.

It was the era of the beginnings of Electrical Technology. Joseph Swan in England and Thomas Edison in America demonstrated the Electric Light bulb. Siemens demonstrated an electric train in Berlin.
Locally The first directly driven generator sets were commissioned in the Beaconsfield Road Tramways Generating Station, 4 sets in all powering the Bristols Tramways System ( Reviewers addition)

The Early Years

Childhood spent in Munich where his father an electrical engineer and uncle ran a small electrochemical plant.
The young Einstein was slow at learning and disliked school. Interest in science caused by reading popular scientific books.
When he was fifteen years old, Einstein’s parents moved to Milan after a failed business venture leaving the young Einstein in Munich to finish his schooling.
Einstein quit the school, and spent most of a year enjoying himself in Italy.
He realised that he would have to acquire a profession and so studied at Aarau in Switzerland and then studied mathematics and physics at the ETH in Zurich with the idea of becoming a teacher.
After graduating Einstein was unable to obtain regular employment and did occasional tutoring and substitute teaching.
Appointed as an examiner in the Swiss Patent Office in Berne. In this employment he completed his days work in 2 - 3 hours and spent the rest of the time working on his papers. Luckily for him and us he had a very accommodating boss.

In 1903 he married a Serbian girl, Mileva Maric, who had been a fellow student at Zurich.
They had two sons, Hans-Albert and Eduard, both of whom were born in Switzerland.
Before they were married, they had a daughter, Lieserl, but she was given for adoption and nothing more is known about her.

Einstein’s 1905 papers

1. "On the Motion of Small Particles..", this gives an explanation of Brownian Motion in terms of the random impacts of molecules on visible particles, and thus gives convincing evidence for the existence of molecules


2. "The Emission and Transformation of Light" In this paper, Einstein proposes light quanta (photons), and shows that this idea leads to an explanation of the photoelectric effect


3. "On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies", this is the paper which explores the implications of an invariant speed of light: the foundation of the Special Theory of Relativity


4. "Does the Inertia of a Body Depend on its Energy Content?", here he deduces the relation E=mc2

The text on the right shows the first paragraph of his paper "On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies".

Peter Ford then gave us the inside view of the above papers.
For the Brownian Movement we had analogies with a Drunkards Walk, Snakes and Ladders and Stock Market Prices. First real physics evidence for molecules.
For the Photoelectric Effect - A comparison between the classical ( Maxwellian) theory and Einsteins prposition that energy comes in quanta which explains experimental facts. First evidence of particle properties of light: E=hf Einstein was awarded the 1921 Nobel Prize for Physics for this work.
For Special Relativity we had a series of diagrams illustrating "Moving clocks run slow, moving objects contract" using a light clock consisting of a pulse of light between two mirrors, with the tick being the time taken for the pulse to travel betwen the two mirrors. If the clock is moving the pulse has further to travel as viewed by a static observer but the original distance to an observer moving with the clock.

Albert Einstein - Later Years 1906-1955

1906 Promoted to Patent Examiner Second Class.
1909 Associate professor of physics at the University of Zurich
1911 Professorship at the University of Prague
1912 Professorship at the Polytechnic in Zurich
1914 Moved to Berlin as a member of the Prussian Academy of Sciences and the director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute of Physics.
During World War I Einstein worked extensively on his General Theory of Relativity.
Einstein's fame soared when in 1919 Sir Arthur Eddington led an expedition to observe the solar eclipse and observed a deviation of light passing near to the sun as predicted by his general theory of relativity.
From then on Einstein was very much in the public eye and he was able to put the weight of his name behind causes which were important to him.
The two main causes were pacifism and Zionism. Einstein was very active in the creation of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Einstein, who was Jewish, came under increasing attack by anti-Semitic groups in Germany. These were both personal attacks and attacks on his ideas of relativity.
In 1933 he accepted a position at the newly formed Institute for Advanced study at Princeton, New Jersey and became an American citizen in 1940.
In 1939 he wrote a letter to Franklin D. Roosevelt pointing out the feasibility of an atomic bomb based on nuclear fission and the possibility that Germany might be actively constructing one. This was partly instrumental in the foundation of the American atomic bomb project at Los Alamos.

Einstein's Final Years

In 1952 he declined to accept the presidency of the state of Israel following the death of Chaim Weizmann.
Einstein died on 18th April 1955. One of his last letters was to sign a plea initiated by Bertrand Russell for the renunciation of nuclear weapons and the abolition of war.

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David Collier gave the meeting an overview of the MEYGEN Pentland Firth Project, the engineering challenges involved and the outstanding issues that remain to be resolved.

Overview
A basic tidal flow generator consists of a totally submerged turbine/generator installed in an area of high tidal flow. The energy that can be extracted from a tidal flow is proportional to the flow velocity cubed and the area swept by the blades, so effective tidal stream generation requires suitable marine sites with high tidal flows and with a depth of water that allows the use of large diameter turbines.

The UK has an estimated Tidal Stream resource of 18TWh/yr. Three quarters of this is around the Scottish coast. Whilst the sea bed is owned by the Crown Estate it has leased out a number of sites, amounting to an estimated 1.7GW, to companies planning to develop tidal flow generation stations.

MEYGEN has obtained a lease on the channel between the tip of Scotland and the Isle of Stroma lying in the Pentland Firth. The tidal flow through this 2 mile wide channel, between the Atlantic and the North Sea, is 4 to 5 meters/sec (10 to 11 knots) at peak spring tide. This is seen as a good site in a strategic location close to the Scottish mainland with an exceptional fast tidal current and with sufficient water depth (32-35 meters) to allow the use of 18 meter diameter turbines with a 8 meter clearance for costal navigation. The channel is free of silt due to the high tidal flow which allows direct access to the bedrock for turbine installation but makes laying cables more problematic.

MYGEN are planning to install multiple generator arrays within this channel over the period 2013 to 2019 cumulating in a total installed 398 MW capacity.This is intended to be phased as follows:

• 20MW       2013/14
• 66MW       2015
• 78MW       2016
• 78MW       2017
• 78MW       2018
• 78MW       2019

Engineering Challenges

Optimising Generator Installation. It is planned to install the generators in arrays of 86 ( max) permanent magnet generators of 1MW each, however, there are issues with the optimum spacing of the generators in order to maximise the power output. To prevent interaction between the turbines and the tidal flow the distance between turbines needs to be maximised, whilst site constraints require they are spaced as closely as possible to maximise the number of generators possible.

Getting Power in to the Grid. There are a number of options available:

• Daisy Chain the generators together and have a single or limited number of connections back to the on-shore sub-station as have been used with offshore wind
• Connect each generator back to the shore via a dedicated cable.

Current thinking is to go for the latter option as:
the distance to the on-shore sub-station is low compared with that of the usual offshore wind farm and unlike off-shore wind generators, where connections can be made in the support structure above water level, tidal flow generator connections need to be made under water. Underwater connections pose reliability issues and if a daisy chain approach is used a failure in an underwater chain connection can in the worst case take down the whole chain.

Power Conditioning. The generator outputs vary widely, in both frequency and voltage, dependent on the flow rate of the tidal current at any particular time. Consequently the output needs to be conditioned before it can be fed into the grid. There are options to provide such conditioning either within the generator housing or back in a shore based sub-station. The current thinking is that it will be more cost effective and provide better reliability to centralise the conditioning on-shore. Lifting a failed generator is high cost as a specialised lifting vessel is required and the operation will be weather and vessel availability limited. The reliability of the generator needs to be maximising by minimising its complexity. Replacement of a shore based conditioner is much simpler and less costly

Cable Routing. It is intended to connect the generators back to the conditioning sub-station using standard sub-marine cable but there are considerations about holding the cables in place under the high tidal flow conditions. The bed rock is a relatively soft multi-strata sand stone which has been eroded into ridges and troughs by the tidal flow. As there is no silt in the channel in which to bury the cable consideration is being given to either drilling cable ducts through the rock from the shore to the generators or alternatively laying cables within the natural troughs in the bed rock. Current thinking is to use a combination of these techniques by drilling out well into the channel and picking up the troughs near the generators.

Turbine Support Structure and Deployment. The Turbine support structure and its fixings to the sea bed must be adequately robust to withstand the high tidal flow and three types of structure have been considered. These are:

• Monopole cemented into a hole drilled into the sea bed
• Tripod cemented into holes drilled for each foot in the sea bed
• Gravitationally weighted tripod structure

The installation of the turbines and support structures is an expensive business requiring specialised offshore vessels capable of heavy lifting and pin point positioning even in adverse weather. Such vessels are used by the oil and gas industry and are normally operating far off shore in deep water during the summer months. The availability of such vessels for inshore use is limited and can cost £80K to 100K a day to hire. In order to minimise costs and make maximise the utilisation of such vessels the latter option is preferred as the vessels do not have to be on station for extended periods carrying out drilling operations.

Environmental Impact. The government needs a demonstration that there will be no deleterious effects on the environment. Initial studies on previous small trial installations are encouraging. An environmental impact study costing £1M plus is currently under way for this specific project.

Project Economics. The cost of installing generation capacity can be assessed in one of two ways: Cost per rated MW installed. Cost of energy generated over the life time of the installation – including installation, running and decommissioning costs. For new technologies this method is problematical as realistic operating and end of life costs are difficult to assess.
The current installation costs for various technologies are assessed as follows:

• Tidal Flow -------- £5M - £6M/MW
• On-shore Wind --- £2M/MW
• Off-shore wind --- £3M-£4M/MW
• Coal ------------- £1M/MW

For the emerging technologies of Tidal Flow and Wind the Government are providing support during the learning period by allowing electricity from these technologies to be sold at a premium. For Tidal Flow this premium is currently 6 times open market power price with wind at 2 times the open market power price .

The MEYGEN Project estimates that over the period 2015 to 2019 their installation costs will decline from £6M-£7M/MW installed to £4M- £5M/MW as the lessons of each installation phase are learnt.

Are We There Yet?

By way of summary David addressed this question as follows:

• The theoretical issues have been identified.
• All issues are believed to be surmountable but the issue of can it be done within an acceptable cost remains to be proved in practice.
• The Grid in the north of Scotland will need to be upgraded and this is dependent on political will.
• The Environmental issues are not seen as presenting major problems.
• The current cost is high, but costs will come down as installation and operational issues are resolve, a growing understanding of how the turbines affect the tides is gained and the economies of scale can be reaped.

Questions and Answers

Following his talk there followed a lively Q&A session. Below are some of the questions that arose:-

Q1 Can the effects of turbine arrays on the tidal flow be modelled?
A1 The effect of turbine arrays is as yet not fully understood and the modelling is not yet proven

Q2 What effect will the unevenness of the sea bed have on the correct alignment of the generator support structures?
A2 It is acceptable for the turbine to be up to 5 degrees out of level. The support structure can be profiled to compensate for the sea bed profile where necessary.

Q3 Is there a problem with fouling or is the flow rate too great to promote growth of weed and marine animals?
A3 Fouling from weed and barnacles is an issue and can reduce the turbine efficiency considerably. It is planned to paint the turbine blades with anti-fouling paint.

Q4 Given then number of challenges involved will this ever be a cost effective technology?
A4 Turbine installation is feasible using high cost oil/gas vessels designed for use in deep water far off shore. In the long-term a custom designed vessel would be more cost effective for installation and maintenance purposes. The key driver to getting the operating costs down is to get the reliability of the offshore items up. The use of on-shore electrical conditioning is seen as major contribution to containing operational costs.

Q5 Could a similar design be used to generate electricity from river flow?
A5 To achieve effective power generation a large diameter turbine is required and a very significant water depth, not normally found in rivers and estuaries, is needed to accommodate this. Vertical axis turbines or run of the river turbines may be a solution to this constraint.

Q6 Power will only be produced around the times when the tide is at full flow. Where will the electricity come from during the periods around slack water/ high water?
A6 Tidal power is predictable unlike the wind and the level of base load can be planned accordingly. The tides progress around the coast and a number of geographically distributed tidal flow stations could provide cover for each other. There is also the possibility of Hydro Electric Generation could provide a base load.

MEYGEN Web Site - For anyone wanting to know more about this project or see some pictures may visit: www.meygen.com

Julian Todman

Autumn Luncheon

Walton Park Hotel, Clevedon - Wednesday November 9th 2011

On a splendid Autumn day the guests arrived between noon and one oclock to enjoy a glass of wine or a non alcoholic drink prior to another enjoyable afternoon.
The club membership consists of many and various skills so there was no shortage of conversation during the preamble to the lunch.
Julian Todman, the general secretary, had arranged the table names and seating plan so no one had to search for their place. At each place was a card reminding each member of the food they had ordered.
A three course lunch was served by the hotel staff followed by coffee and mints.
Andrew gave a short speech and concluded by thanking everyone for their support for the club.
After the meal members collected into small groups for further conversation before drifting off.
This was another successful luncheon made possible by the hard work of our general secretary Julian and, of course the hotel staff.